Massachusetts Senate race draws to a close today

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Voter's in Massachusetts head to the polls today to determine who will fill the Senate seat formerly held by Ted Kennedy, choosing either Democrat Martha Coakley or Republican Scott Brown.

The race was originally seen as cakewalk for the Democrats, but Brown's campaign and supporters turned the race into a dead heat and now an seeming victory for Brown, as Nate Silver of 538 is puts Brown at 3:1 and other polls also point to Brown winning.

If Brown wins, that puts 41 Republicans in the Senate, enough to sustain a filibuster, which puts Democrat plans for health care reform in jeopardy. Backup plans are already being considered, including asking the House to back the Senate plan with no changes.

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Posted by brandonb at 11:02 AM on January 19th 2010

34 comments submitted.

All I know about the situation is what I saw on Jon Stewart last night (oh, how many things I can say that about), but based on that, a) she ran a lousy campaign, and b) it speaks a lot about the failure of Democrats all round over the last year. (Badmouthing Curt Schilling? Spelling "Massachusetts" wrong in your ad? That's amateur hour, and you don't deserve to win, even if your opponent did a nekkid spread in Cosmo.)

Maybe the Dems need this kick in the pants. Speaking broadly, they haven't had any real successes, even when they had all the tools and no excuses.

Posted by Capt. Renault at 2:05 PM on Jan 19th

Lots of people want to make this a national thing, but it sounds more like a local fight. The most significant national outcome of the race is how the winning party will frame this benefit their side.

I wonder if it'll be too close to decide tonight?

Posted by brandonb at 4:15 PM on Jan 19th

Again, I don't know nearly enough about the race, but I would suspect that the seat having been Teddy's for so long, the Dems probably took it for granted, and didn't put forward as much effort as they should have, seeing it as an easy promotion for Coakley to a long-term Senate career.

She doesn't seem to be the best campaigner, and there's enough in her bio for people to object to. Brown says all the right things, and appeals to conservatives who are currently underrepresented.

But I stand to be corrected on any of this.

Posted by Capt. Renault at 4:47 PM on Jan 19th

I think you pretty much nailed it, especially on Democrats taking the seat for granted. Oops.

Posted by brandonb at 4:52 PM on Jan 19th

Wonkette is livetweeting and liveblogging at the same time. It's hilarious, and I suspect they're drinking heavily.

So many IS HEALTHCARE DEAD? headlines. :(

Posted by Tehanu at 8:27 PM on Jan 19th

Polls closed at 8pm EST, and current results are Brown 52%, Coakely 47% according to MSNBC.

Posted by brandonb at 8:28 PM on Jan 19th

538 is tweeting too, for those who like their election results served sober.

Posted by brandonb at 8:29 PM on Jan 19th

This is an election return night I prefer somewhat inebriated myself.

53-46 with 11% reporting.

Posted by Tehanu at 8:33 PM on Jan 19th

Do NOT watch MSNBC, they're flashing new percentages every 30 seconds it seems. First it was Brown 51, Coakley 48, then Brown 52.something, Coakely 46.1. NOT FOR THE FAINT OF HEART.

Talking Points Memo is saying "Game over, just pass what health care reform we got and let's hit the bar"

Posted by brandonb at 8:34 PM on Jan 19th

Also, Haiti keeps pre-empting coverage. Amazingly they're still finding survivors.

Posted by brandonb at 8:37 PM on Jan 19th

I'll join in when the new Kids In the Hall episode is over.

Sometimes, it's good to be Canadian. Tonight is one of those times.

Posted by Capt. Renault at 9:00 PM on Jan 19th

57% reporting, Brown 52.7%, Coakely 46.3%. This is going to be a hell of an upset, Democrats got some 'plainin' to do.

Posted by brandonb at 9:04 PM on Jan 19th

AP is calling it for Brown, according to Rachel Maddow.

Posted by brandonb at 9:22 PM on Jan 19th

NBC news says Coakley is calling Brown to concede. Man, Ted is pissed.

Posted by brandonb at 9:24 PM on Jan 19th

Brown campaign headquarters: a band is on stage, the lead singer is a woman in a black mini dress gyrating around while VICTORY flashes on a video screen in the background.

Ah, American politics, I've missed you.

Posted by brandonb at 9:26 PM on Jan 19th

Howard Dean is talking to Rachel Maddow and his take on the situation is that Brown's winning might be a good thing as it could force Democrats to actually fight for something instead of ducking and running. Yah, like that'll happen.

Posted by brandonb at 9:37 PM on Jan 19th

I guess there's solace in that Lieberman won't have as much leverage, now that he's no longer that 60th vote.

Or he can just swing back to the Republicans... shit.

WHEN WILL LIEBERMAN GET HIS COMEUPPANCE?!?

Posted by Capt. Renault at 9:38 PM on Jan 19th

He's also advocating using reconciliation to pass health care reform and in doing so, make the change something most people will like, such as lowering the age for Medicare eligibility to 55.

Posted by brandonb at 9:41 PM on Jan 19th

President Obama called to congratulate Brown. Awkward. "Hey, congrats on winning and aiming to kill my signature piece of legislation. Have a nice day."

Posted by brandonb at 9:55 PM on Jan 19th

Coakley's conceding publicly now. She's very nice.

Posted by brandonb at 9:59 PM on Jan 19th

The loss is bad enough, and the ordinary crowing will be bad enough, but because this was Teddy's seat, it's going to bring out everyone who was ever hard-done by by the Kennedys ever (who are still alive, and then some). John Dean, G. Gordon Liddy, Bork -- they're all going to find a teevee camera somewhere and claim vindication through this 'Kennedy loss'...

Posted by Capt. Renault at 10:00 PM on Jan 19th

Brown is on now, saying the "Independent Majority has spoken" and he hopes Washington is getting the message. The crowd is chanting "41, 41, 41"

Posted by brandonb at 10:32 PM on Jan 19th

Now the crowd is chanting "Seat him now, seat him now!"

Posted by brandonb at 10:34 PM on Jan 19th

Brown says he's ready to go to Washington "without delay" Hope the Democrats are burning the midnight oil to get their shit together.

Posted by brandonb at 10:35 PM on Jan 19th

Brown salutes Ted Kennedy, saying he's try to be worthy successor to him.

Posted by brandonb at 10:36 PM on Jan 19th

Brown looks and sounds good. Presidential candidate for 2012? 2016?

Posted by brandonb at 10:37 PM on Jan 19th

Brown says he spoke to the President, hinted at playing basketball with him, then offered to drive "the truck" down to Washington. Yep, Presidential candidate, assuming he keeps his nose clean.

Posted by brandonb at 10:42 PM on Jan 19th

And then MSNBC cuts away from the speech. WTH?!

Posted by brandonb at 10:46 PM on Jan 19th

And within 15 minutes of the race being called Democratic Senators are already calling to wait on health care until Brown can vote.

Posted by xammerboy at 10:51 PM on Jan 19th

I'm curious to see what the White House does on that front. Are they going play, pass, or fold?

Posted by brandonb at 11:45 PM on Jan 19th

The idea that 59 senators in the controlling party means the Democrats have lost the ability to pass ANY legislation puts us in the twilight zone. Dems still have a HUGE majority. Time to nuke the rules.

We are now Israel, where the fringe controls the agenda.

Posted by nax at 8:37 AM on Jan 20th

SOTU liveblog? y/n?

Posted by Tehanu at 8:04 PM on Jan 27th

Tehanu,

Yes! I'll start a post.

Posted by lukemeister at 8:46 PM on Jan 27th

Get your own 'anatomically correct' Scott Brown Action Figure.

What you do with it is your own business. I don't judge.

Posted by Capt. Renault at 4:54 PM on Feb 1st

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