Voting day in Iran
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After months of debate, fanfare and tensions; candidate approval (and rejection) by the Guardian Council, former Prime Minister Mir-Hossein Mousavi faces off against the current President, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, as Iranians will finally cast their vote for President.
The urban middle class is angry, want the conservative Ahmadinejad out and using various means of technology to bring out the vote, while rural voters want him to stay, believing they finally have a President who represents them. What are the chances of Mousavi, the moderate reformist, actually winning again the hardline incumbent? It's anyone's guess, as Iran's power structure is a bit opaque and polls are unreliable, but the race is close.
The urban middle class is angry, want the conservative Ahmadinejad out and using various means of technology to bring out the vote, while rural voters want him to stay, believing they finally have a President who represents them. What are the chances of Mousavi, the moderate reformist, actually winning again the hardline incumbent? It's anyone's guess, as Iran's power structure is a bit opaque and polls are unreliable, but the race is close.
Posted by brandonb at 8:15 AM on June 12th 2009

If Ahmadinjad does lose, there's a huge temptation in the West to attribute that to Obama, but at best that's just a small factor. Many Iranians are just fed up with him and the crappy state of the economy. Not that the White House wouldn't take some credit though!
And yeah, from news stories my impression is that the rallies and public excitement have been unusual for recent times. For the last election much of the population who dislikes Ahmadinejad was so disaffected and distrustful of the voting accuracy, they just stayed home.
Oh wait, that's not good.
State run media says Ahmadinejad is in the lead or has won, so three guesses on how that's going over. There's already calls of vote rigging.
Like Bush, but with a safer lead.
That BBC article has bitter sweet irony in it. The current system that has the Supreme Leader voted into law after the overthrow of the Shah, whom the west was backing.
Ahmadinejad winning sounds odd, since the middle class swore they were coming out in force and seemed to out number the incumbents rural base, but who knows? Perhaps the Western press was seeing what it wanted to see.
Blogger Gary Sick has reconstructed a timeline of events:
Andrew Sullivan has riveting coverage, if you can ignore the "rah, rah, it's a revolution, rise up people" pulsing through every post.
My general sense is that no one, not even Mousavi and his supporters, want a violent revolution, with good reason. They're messy and ugly and end up destroying parts of society even as they create a new. Being able to vote in a more moderate leader is what they would have preferred and now faced with being ignore, I don't think the middle class has the guts to shake off their middle class lifestyle and risk everything for it. This isn't an indictment on Iranians, I suspect most middle class are like this, there's just too much to lose with long term violent clashes.
HuffPost (a bit slow to load-- lots of stuff on page).
Say what you want about Twitter, but it's the only thing the Iranian government hasn't managed to block.
Mousvi's wife made a public appearance calling for peaceful demonstrations on Monday and a strike on Tuesday. Interesting, I keep expecting this to be winding down and it doesn't seem like it wants to at this point. I have not particular expertise or knowledge of the area or region, but it seems as though, at this point, it's going to have to go to another level. Considering the blocking of everything and the kicking out of foreign journalists, I'm guess the government is going to start cracking down hard.
Twitter gets an undeserved bad rap, in my opinion. I've caught a lot of breaking news from Twitter. Verify it elsewhere, I've learned the hard way, but it's been remarkably accurate in terms of tweets from the sources I check, so far.
An Iranian reporter is saying they didn't even bother to try to do a real election; this is not a fraud but a coup.
There's more and it's pretty bad.
This Twitter user is tweeting a lot of interesting stuff.
CNN is getting panned for not really following the story, but I doubt CNN and the audience it caters to cares.
CNN is more or less ass unless you want terrifying breaking news of the latest US crises.
CNN would like to thank its iReporters for covering the story, despite the Iraninan government suppression and if you want to know more you can go to the CNN Twitter stream. God, TV for news is pretty much bottom of the borrow these days.
Same person links to photos and video from today.
BBC video of the protests. Pretty massive and peaceful and not the pitched battle I feared it would be.
Mousavi is on the streets also, in the crowds.
http://twitpic.com/photos/madyar is the same acct we both linked to. It's uplifting to see the crowds, which look peaceful, but then my dread grows as I scroll down as see the aftermath of last night's university raid. Yes that user is in Tehran.
There are Twitter rumors of violence in Tehran now and people hearing gunshots. And some comments about how young people are being targeted. I saw a mention early this morning (Eastern time) of Tehran's side streets not being safe, unlike the big main protest crowds. Maybe that dynamic is shifting now.
I just saw a a news report on CNN about the protests and Mousavi. One thing that caught my eye was the sheer number of digital cameras in the crowd, so there's going to be a lot more photos coming out later.
Also reports that the entire staff of Tehran University has resigned in protest of the attacks there, with some students dead.
All of this is unconfirmed, of course, just raw tweets.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GZErZx9JVS0&feature=player_embedded
Overall, I think he strikes a good tone, saying it's to the Iranians to choose Iranian leaders, trying to send a message that the U.S. isn't meddling and has no intention of meddling.
Seems like the rulebook for communications during protests are being rewritten.
Ahmadinejad is has left the country to go to a previously scheduled meeting in Russia, which is shame because a Pro-Ahmadinejad rally is planned for today in Tehran. That rally is scheduled about two hours before an anti-Ahmadinejad rally in Vali Asr Square in Tehran.
Iranian state media says seven people were killed in the rally yesterday.
Al Jazeera has a short report on the Pro Ahemedjindad rally, which they're saying was arranged by the government. The Intelligence minister alleges foreign elements are backing some of the counter revolutionaries.
Despite the violence, things have been going much milder than I expected. The government is obviously holding back to some degree, but why? Fearful of being seen too oppressive? Is there disagreement over how far to go?
Montazeri has been a long time critic of the current regime and supporter of civil and women's rights. He's widely respected, especially among reformers, so this gives a boost to the protesters and further highlights cracks in the current system.
There are also reports, unconfirmed, of Army Generals being arrested, possibly for conspiring with the protesters.
No way to verify the document, though there were reports of these when things first started blowing up.
I've seen various reports of 32 dead, again unconfirmed, and no breakdown of when and where they died.
The situation seems to have entered into a surreal stage, with each side getting more non-violent so as to take a moral high ground. Whoever attacks would give cause to the other to respond, enabling the defender to claim a moral victory. So now, they both appear to racing against some unknown clock to remain calm and quiet and the government forces have the upper hand in that. The protests have brought the country to a standstill, but there's only so long that can last. Eventually people have to go back to work, school and life and if they don't see their cause moving forward, many will raise the question "why continue?" All the government has to do is show up, stay calm and not attack anyone. They have a better chance of maintaining that over the long haul.
Cell phones were turned off today. That's got to hurt, yet infuriating. Having a cell phone is almost a necessity these days, so to have it just turned off by government forces is probably just going to stiffen resolve.
It should be noted that many comments ago I said the middle class probably wouldn't be able to hold out, due to being middle class. Yet the length and strength of the protests have proven that line of thought wrong and I'm thinking there's also a flip side. The middle class knows how good it can be and isn't going to give it up easily.
The losing candidates, Moussavi, Mehdi Karroubi and Mohsen Rezai, have been invited to a special session of the Guardian Council to "discuss their issues with the members."
The partial recount has begun, and to everyone's surprise, no irregularities have been found.
The first item is, to me, the key point: It's pretty hard to walk back the miracle statement, so I don't see it happening unless it looks like Khamenei would be overthrown. The protests have called for new elections, but that's been flatly rejected and even if there were new elections, who's to say it would happen again, just with a closer vote to make it seem more legitimate?
So what, if anything, would make the protesters accept the status quo, besides a violent crackdown?
What I see is a day of fighting between Iranian citizens and the government (additional BBC report). This struggle is continuation of the 1979 revolution, with two sides attempting to take the country in different directions. As bloody as today was, the government still seems to be holding back, even as the protesters show no signs of backing down or growing tired. Every day that there's violence the government looks weaker, even if it's actually winning (and theres no clear sign that it is). Ultimataly the authorities may be backed into corner (it may have done this itself with it's clear support for the validity of the elections), forcing them to unleash massive crackdowns. Think about it, citizens are blatantly calling a guy with the title "The Supreme Leader" a liar and calling for his death. That's not something you can walk back.
It's not clear where Mousavi is, but there were reports earlier in the day that was willing to be martyred.
One thing I'm seen in whatever reports that are filed, in whatever tweets and websites, indeed any communication from protesters on the street, no matter the age or sex, is similar language in describing their stance: No way we're backing down.
If anyone has a reason to despise the Basij, it seems like young women would be at the top of such a list.
There are various reports of the Assembly of Experts issuing a statement in support of the validity of the election results. Iranian readers of the Huffingtonpost blog offer a fuller context:
Meanwhile, state controlled tv has taken to calling the protesters "terrorists".
The Globe and Mail has links to various video snapshots, including that of Neda, a young woman who was shot. The video of her death is becoming a symbol of what's occurring in Iran.
Meanwhile, Neda, the woman who's death was caught on video, has become a symbol of the movement, even as the government tries to prevent that from happening.